A Sum of Zeros

So, I've never known quite how I feel about prediction markets such as TradeSports, but along with the polls I will undoubtedly be tracking in the new two years, I will include predictions from TradeSports about who the nominees for President will be. We'll see how well it does. Unfortunately, my first TS review comes after the first big news of the '08 season. And all those poor people who had shares in Mark Warner...

So, here are the last trade prices for the major candidates and potential candidates (read them as the percent chance that that candidate will get his party's nomination):

Democrats:
Hillary Clinton: 49.4
Al Gore: 16.9
John Edwards: 14.0
Barack Obama: 4.0
Evan Bayh: 3.9
John Kerry (oh, please, please not again): 3.3
Russ Feingold: 2.7

Republicans:
John McCain: 37.8
Rudy Giuliani: 18.4
Mitt Romney: 15.2
George Allen: 6.7
Mike Huckabee: 5.8
Condoleezza Rice: 4.0
Newt Gingrich: 3.7

While we're at it, let's look the chances of the GOP retaining control after November:
House: TS - 37.2 (NYTimes: GOP down by 1 with 16 toss-ups)
Senate: TS - 73.0 (NYTimes: GOP up by 1 with 3 toss-ups)